The following are approximately the first 1000 words from Chapter 24 of Jonar Nader’s book,
How to Lose Friends and Infuriate People.

Branded for life:

It’s the little things that count

Hey, Nader! What do you do for a job now, mate?’, shouted an old classmate whom I had not seen for eleven years. We were at a reunion to celebrate the centenary of our college. I saw by his grin that he was making mischief. ‘I’m a futurist.’ With that, he expelled a belly laugh and looked around to find an audience for his retort. ‘You always were the weird one, Nader.’ The irony of his mockery was that he found my career a little daft in spite of the fact that he was an historian.

It is extremely respectable for someone to be an historian, yet it is peculiar to be a futurist. In a world that thrives on hope for the future, it seems strange that very few people learn how to befriend it. If the future is so important to so many people, why is it treated as a mysterious entity? Is the future not that which we help to mould? Do we not shape it by what we do today? If the answer is no, then what is the meaning of success? Is success not what we arrive at after we have planted the right seeds and invested well to secure it? Surely anyone who desires success is partnering with the present in the hope of arriving safely at the next place — a place not unlike this one, except that in the absence of its existence, we cannot give it a name, so we fearfully and respectfully call it ‘the future’.

Perhaps in the past, when life was simpler, the notion of ‘tomorrow’ focused heavily on nature’s whims. Although nature still has a mind of it own, and still refuses to be tamed, we can deal with most of its tantrums. We can protect ourselves from most of its elements. We can heal ourselves of most of its diseases. We can lead ourselves, despite its distractions. Why, then, is it so strange that futurists should exist? Is it, perhaps, due to the reputation of fallen futurists who were erroneous in their predictions? Or is it due to the thankless nature of the profession whose more serious members found themselves in prison for most of their lives? Such tortured souls were locked up for daring to paint a picture that did not suit the aristocracy who stood to lose their fortunes or positions of power. Perhaps futurists were imprisoned as a public statement, or maybe even as a warning to mother nature, lest it contemplate the shattering of the comfortable status quo.

What is a futurist?

There are vast differences between soothsayers, clairvoyants, psychics, diviners, mystics, prophets, analysts, forecasters, and futurists. For example, a prophet will envisage a better place and urge everyone to adopt new ways regardless of the sacrifices they would entail. A forecaster asks the leaders of the pack where they are heading, then formulates some assumptions based on emerging trends or rumoured investment. Often, what is forecast comes to fruition because the ‘mob’ realigns its focus in fear of being left behind. For example, if a forecaster says ‘car makers will include an airbag in each new model’, then enough airbags will be made in anticipation of demand. If there is no demand, a price war ensues, resulting in very cheap airbags that car makers would find attractive to purchase. Voilà! The forecast comes true.

Contrary to popular belief, a futurist is not someone who is devoid of practical applications. In fact, although merciless when it comes to the 101 excuses that managers give about why the status quo shall reign supreme, a futurist is someone who understands the current strengths and weaknesses of the here and now, and is able to see the strengths and weaknesses of the next destination. As such, a futurist is able to assess which of the two locations will dominate, and offer suggestions about what can be done to prepare for, and adapt to, the new environment, should it prove victorious. The hallmark of a futurist is understanding the differences between fleeting and lasting change.

A futurist understands that force and power are not to be reckoned with. In fact, the future is not something that needs to be constructed by us. It is not something that will seek our permission. It will do what it likes, to whom it likes, when it likes. The future will do unto us what it will. There is no stopping it. However, when speaking of ‘engineering the future’, a futurist is showing how bridges can be built to facilitate pioneers and explorers to cross over so that they can undertake reconnaissance missions into the great unknown. By studying the new environment ahead of the pack, one is able to prepare for the future.

Preparation ahead of time will remove the sense of urgency that blinds many organisations when faced with the shock of it all. By understanding the new world, one is able to build solid foundations and flexible infrastructures so that one is able to react with purpose, not respond with surprise.

What makes the future?

Naturally, learning about the future starts by studying the past. It also requires an understanding of the present. However, what many observers do not realise is that it also requires a thorough understanding of the current peripheral environment. Whether one is forecasting, prophesying, anticipating, or predicting the future, there are important elements that can play a big part in how it shapes up. For example, regardless of the probability of what seems likely, the future is sometimes diverted by new laws, wild cards, and entrenched social taboos; and the impact of by-products, current demands, emergent necessities, and pent-up anxieties.

Many inventions that have shaped our world came about as a result of someone’s frustration with a set of circumstances. For example, Almon Strowger was an undertaker in Kansas City who was fed up with losing business to his competitors. He noticed that the local switchboard operator seemed to favour other undertakers, and would rarely connect callers to him. As a result, he decided to invent a switching system that would remove the need for discriminating operators. In 1891 he patented the automatic dialling system that we now use every day. Who would have thought that an undertaker would make such a contribution to the world of telecommunications?